Monthly Archives: April 2012

‘Final Solution’ Frenzy:Final Solution for Pakistan

Tariq Saeedi

With Sergi Pyatakov in Moscow, Mark Davidson in Washington, Qasim Jan in Kandahar and Rupa Kival in New Delhi

1 May 2010 (nCa) — The components of the ‘Final Solution’ for Pakistan are known, and almost ready. The exact shape those components will take when put together is not so clear. The expected outcome is recognizable; the degree to which the actual outcome would resemble the expectations is still in the dark.

This report is based on our legwork in the field and the expert opinion of our consultants in Moscow, Washington and New Delhi. There is unanimity in the field findings and the expert opinion that the United States could be on the verge of doing something drastic and desperate in the region.

The main frustration for the American policymakers is that when they move with their own plans, everything else also moves, not necessarily in the same direction. The inability to anticipate the complex dynamics has rendered many of their moves not only ineffective but counterproductive.

One of the important new developments is that India, till now an enthusiastic partner of Gates-Vickers duo in destabilizing Pakistan, is fast losing appetite for such adventures.

There are three main pillars of the ‘Final Solution’: 1. Cut the western half of Balochistan from the rest of Pakistan and declare it ‘international strategic corridor’; 2. Topple the sitting government in Iran; and 3. Create an Ismaili state, joining the Gorno-Badakhshan oblast of Tajikistan, Badakhshan province of Afghanistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan province of Pakistan.

The benefits that the Americans expect to derive from this triple-decker ambition would be discussed in one of the later reports.

In the present report we shall deal with the components of the ‘Final Solution’ as they relate to Pakistan.

The mock operations in Helmand and Kandahar

The DoD-CIA and their embedded journalists painstakingly spun a tale that Helmand was a stronghold of Taliban. That was their justification for Operation Moshtarak.

In fact, half of Helmand was already in the hands of the US forces. The other half, sparingly populated, was not important for the ongoing operations in Afghanistan.

As the operation Moshtarak unfolded, we were in touch with our sources in Helmand. We know from first-hand accounts that:

  • The operation was conducted mainly by the US forces although the reporting gave the impression that the NATO was equally in the forefront.
  • One of the main reasons given for the operation was that Taliban were benefiting from poppy crops and they must be denied this source of income. We know for sure that not a single poppy bulb was destroyed during the operation.
  • The village elders that were shown meeting the US force commanders were the middlemen for poppy, and the Americans fully knew it.
  • We are still in touch with our Helmand sources and we know that the Americans don’t dare go far beyond their camps.
  • Roughly five percent of the US forces were busy in keeping an eye on the newly trained Afghan police because the policemen had the tendency to desert and join the enemy whenever they found a chance.

After the mock operation in Helmand, the US forces are now planning a bigger offensive in Kandahar, an area that is billed ad nauseam as the spiritual capital of the Taliban.

Based solely on the media hype and DoD-CIA statements, one gets the impression that not even a mosquito can fly in Kandahar without the consent of Taliban.

The actual fact is that the Kandahar airport is the busiest single-runway airport in the world. More than 700 American and NATO flights land or take off every day at Kandahar airfield. Had Taliban been in control of the whole of Kandahar, it would not have been possible for so many American and NATO warplanes to land and take off in that province. Also, there are two American bases in Kandahar.

Therefore, the impression that Helmand and Kandahar were, or are, out of bounds for Americans and NATO is based on manufactured ‘truth.’

In search of an explanation for the American fascination with Helmand and Kandahar and the operations that are not what they are said to be, we consulted some experts in Moscow and Washington.

Oleg in Moscow and Simon in Washington (not their real names) are military strategists with access to information not available to the media or public.

Oleg said, “One way to understand the operations in Helmand and Kandahar is to see where the operation begins and where it ends. At the end of the operation, do you find more American forces near the border with Pakistan?”

Simon in Washington agreed. “Yes, the objective is apparently to put large number of troops along the border with Pakistan,” he said.

When asked for the reasons for this move, Simon said, “The bipartisan thinking here is that Pakistan is the problem. —– If you find a boulder in your path, either you remove it or you try to go around it. The inclination here is to go around this boulder.”

This cryptic remark of Simon reminded us of a Russian expert we sometimes consult for our investigative reports. The keywords in his remark were ‘boulder’ and ‘go around.’

In what way is Pakistan a boulder and how would one ‘go around’ it, we asked.

Simon said, “Everyone in Washington considers China the main threat. If unchecked for another decade or so, China would be a superpower, probably replacing the USA as the only superpower of any consequence. It is not possible to contain China without cutting a free path across Pakistan and Afghanistan, right up to the borders of China.”

“Cutting a path through Pakistan? Are you talking of Greater Balochistan?” we asked.

“Yes,” Simon said, “But now it is not Greater Balochistan, at least for now. The gossip here is that the hawks in the establishment would now be content with half of the Pakistani Balochistan. They call it international strategic corridor.”

We returned to Oleg in Moscow to ask whether the American forces that would end up near the borders of Pakistan on completion of Kandahar operation would be enough to sever half of Balochistan from the rest of Pakistan.

“First, you have to see what is happening in Helmand where the operation Moshtarak has been completed already. Whatever they do in Helmand would be repeated on larger scale in Kandahar,” said Oleg.

We already had this information. Soon after the completion of operation Moshtarak, the American forces started building forward bases and depots at four points in Helmand, the first of them at Gereshk and the last at a location southward of Malik Rokand, practically at the border with Pakistan.

We told this to Oleg. He said, “You see, this is systematic deployment of forces at the Pakistan border, with a semi-permanent logistics support system for prolonged presence.”

Some new questions arose: Would the American forces, at some convenient time, try to rush into Pakistan in order to create the ‘international strategic corridor’ they want? What will be the size and geographical scope of such a corridor? What would be the likely strength of US troops at the border of Pakistan at the end of the planned operation in Kandahar? Would the US troops at Pakistan border be enough for cutting off half of Balochistan considering that Pakistan is likely to offer some tough resistance?

The other jaw of pincer

“The pincer must have two jaws,” said Simon.

He explained, “The US Navy would be in a position after July 2010 to station some landing ships, probably four, near the territorial waters of Pakistan. They would be able to land and support more than 30000 troops, complete with transport units and fighting gear, anywhere at the Pakistan coastline between Pasni and Gawadar. There would be aircraft carriers with more than enough warplanes to overwhelm the Pakistan Airforce. This is the other jaw of the pincer.”

The picture thus emerging was that after July 2010, the US would have substantial number of troops at the border of Pakistan with Afghanistan. This is the area where the Chagai district of Pakistani Balochistan meets the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar in Afghanistan.

 

The total number of these troops, Oleg in Moscow estimated, would be more than 35000.

Simultaneously, as Simon told us, there would be some 30000 soldiers and marines waiting to land at the beaches of Balochistan. This makes military sense, especially in the face of the fact that the part of Balochistan that lies between these two pressure points does not have any significant presence or support system of Pakistan army.

International strategic corridor

The international strategic corridor, the clipped version of the former plan to create Greater Balochistan, was of great interest from the point of view of our report.

To get a clutch-hold on this question we consulted Oleg. We asked him that as a military strategist how he would draw such a corridor on the map.

“First, you need to define your military goals and then you look at the terrain. Match the two in the most efficient manner,” said Oleg.

He said that Chagai district of Pakistan Balochistan runs for about 500 km along the border with Afghanistan. This, he said, represents nearly 30% of the total Pak-Afghan border and the easiest terrain from the military point of view.

“If I were to draw such a border, I would take Nushki as the starting point and draw a north-south line, connecting it with Ras Malan. All the area west of the line up to Iranian border would be the strategic corridor,” said Oleg.

We took this hypothetical corridor to Simon and asked for his comments.

Simon said, “Yes, this is about the size of the thing. DoD-CIA brains are also thinking along the same lines.”

Trigger point

Theoretically it looks neat and orderly to draw a corridor on the map and cut it off from a sovereign country on the military strength alone. However, in real life one needs some excuse, even the size of a fig leaf, to undertake such an enterprise.

We asked Oleg and Simon as to what could be the trigger point for the American forces to justify such an audacious undertaking.

Oleg said, “The excuses are not hard to fine. There can be the civil war in Pakistan, which they are trying hard to start. There can also be a political assassination in Pakistan to start unrest at such a scale that the USA would be able to convince the international community that ‘humanitarian’ intervention had become necessary.”

Simon in Washington added, “An international incident can easily be linked to Pakistan and that would be a good enough reason for invasion. It can be as big as assassination of Obama and as small as bombing of a refinery in the UK. In fact, the latest amendment to the NATO charter seems designed to add this kind of hair trigger in the NATO mechanism. Justification, in any case, is no big deal when you don’t really need to justify it to anyone.”

Simon said that the recent history was full of false flag operations. He cited the 1954 firebomb and unrest in Alexandria (Egypt) by Israel, to make Egypt look unstable and delay the withdrawal of British troops from Suez Canal, the CIA murder of Mehdi Ben Barka of Morocco to foil communists from coming to power, the murder of Patrice Lumumba by CIA in 1965, the JFK plan to shoot down American civilian plane and blame it on Cuba as some of the examples.

Self financed war and civilian surge

A chance remark by Oleg opened a new path for investigation.

He said, “Goals are layered in the military strategy. If you go for a single goal and you fail in that, you are a skunk. However, if you go out there with seven goals and achieve just two, there are ways to make you look good despite overall failure.”

We started thinking of what other goals could be found in the US intention of cutting off half of Balochistan from the rest of Pakistan in addition to the obvious advantage of getting a direct supply route to Afghanistan, easy access to Central Asia, and curtailment of China.

Although these are three major goals, each one of them enough to justify an ambitious expedition, and all of them would be achieved if the US manages to create its international strategic corridor, could there be something else that we had missed?

While we were pondering this question, our sources in Helmand told that the Americans were planning a major ‘civilian surge.’ The sources told us that thousands of civilian professionals were being trained in the US in conditions resembling the terrain, town and country life, and unrest in Afghanistan.

We asked Oleg if the civilian surge in Afghanistan could have any connections with the international strategic corridor the American might try to create before the end of this year.

“Look at the corridor area and see if there is anything of economic or strategic importance,” he said.

Sure enough, as if our eyes had opened for the first time, we saw on the map Saindak and Reko Dig mines, rich in gold, silver and other precious metals and minerals. There is also a mountain in the area that is of interest to Americans because they believe it houses some of the atomic facilities of Pakistan.

We took this hunch to Simon. He took a few days to get back.

In our next session Simon told that about 38 mining engineers and nine nuclear scientists were among the professionals who were being trained under the civilian surge programme and they would be ready to arrive in Afghanistan near the end of July 2010.

Simon conjectured that the mining engineers could be used to assess the potential of Saindak and Reko Dig mines. The general estimates are that these mines hold more than US $ 200 billion worth of wealth. If the civilian surge engineers can confirm these estimates, it would be all the more reason to create the international strategic corridor and get hold of these assets. After all, it could be the ticket to make this war pay its own expenses, and give some profit at the side.

Nuclear bonus

Simon also said that a certain mountain in the general area of the anticipated corridor was of great interest to Washington bigwigs. It is a mountain where some in Washington believe that Pakistan maintains some of its nuclear facilities.

“If this mountain falls in our hands, it would be a definite way to not only to be sure of the exact nuclear capability and expertise of Pakistan, but also to cut it back to an acceptable level,” said Simon.

“It would be a big bonus for Americans,” said Oleg.

Gawadar and Pasni Ports

Both Simon and Oleg pointed out that one must not underestimate the importance of Gawadar and Pasni ports, both of them in the expected area of the international strategic corridor. The ports, and the infrastructure, transportation and communication network connected to them, could of immense value to the USA.

Role of India

The creation of an international strategic corridor – a euphemism for the downsized independent Balochistan – is a big American enterprise and there are several sidekicks on the show, most notably India.

India, till now, was an enthusiastic player, in the hope that it would get to police Afghanistan after the Americans leave. However, it appears that the Indian appetite for meddling in Pakistan and Afghanistan has dampened of late. We are not sure whether it is a simulated effect or the real thing.

Because of the recent reshuffling in the Indian power agencies, our ability to understand the Indian plans and mindset has been reduced to a third hand access, that too not very reliable.

What we have been able to gather is that the Indian intelligence community is split between hawks and realists – doves are not employable in this profession. Hawks want to keep pushing on the current plans and realists are advocating a wait and see policy.

Nonetheless, we found that India has increased its support for the movement to create an independent Ismaili state in the northern areas, now re-designated Gilgit-Baltistan province. The supposed leadership of the movement is sitting in India. We also learned that the takeover of the Swat valley by the so-called Pakistani Taliban was a dry run to cut off Pakistan from northern areas when a real attempt is made to create the Ismaili state.

Our sources in Afghanistan also told that India recently staged fights in some provinces of Afghanistan not far from the Central Asian states to convince them of the usefulness of allowing Indian military bases on their soil. Their main aim was to intimidate Tajikistan where India has vacated a base it once had. The recent skirmishes in Badghis and Fariab provinces were in this category.

We also found that the Indian embassy in Kabul has thwarted negotiations between Brahmdagh Bugti, the grandson of late Akbar Bugti, and the Pakistan authorities. A Baloch, who is a lawyer by profession, was acting as middleman in these talks.

Pakistan Media

One sidekick is India, the other is the Pakistani electronic media, especially the 150 or so TV hosts who prefer to call themselves ‘anchors.’

We talked to an American diplomat whose job requires frequent interaction with the Pakistani media. This report will not assign a pseudonym, or declare the gender of the American diplomat because that was the condition of cooperation. We will not tell whether the diplomat is still in Pakistan or has moved out.

“Pakistani TV journalists are some of the easiest to buy or manipulate,” said the American diplomat.

“Their price is ridiculously small. A drink, a lunch with a second or first secretary in a place where they can be seen by their admirers, invitations to official receptions, or at most, a trip to the states, is all you need to buy their loyalty,” said the diplomat.

“My dog is usually fussier,” the diplomat added in disgust.

“There was a drive,” the diplomat explained, “very obvious and crude, in some selected countries, to make the educated people feel ashamed of being Muslims.”

“The Pakistani TV journalists swallowed it hook, line and sinker,” said the diplomat.

“Except for an incorruptible handful, they are a sorry lot,” the American diplomat said with an undisguised revulsion.

The next report in this series will deal with the ‘Final Solution’ for Iran. We hope to release it within the next ten days or so.

To be continued . . .

[The last part of this report, dealing with Iran, was not published for certain reasons.

[This report is our Archive Material, first published in March/April 2010]

This is a cross post from News Central Asia Blog & Part IV of the series of Article).

Flight 213: the carrier that never landed!

Pakpotpourri was offered this article to run by the writer.

By: Farhan Imaan

On 20 April 2012, approx 18:40 pm, Flight 213 lost the contact with control tower, a Boeing 737-200 (AP-BKC), Bhoja Air Flight 213 carrying 127 people on a flight from Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport destined for Islamabad’s Benazir Bhutto International Airport crashed near Chaklala killing all on board.

There were  bad weather conditions, eye-witness reports say that the aircraft was already on fire on its landing approach before it crashed.Initial reports suggest that as the pilots of Bhoja Air Flight B4-213 attempted to land amidst rain and strong winds.The ill fated aircraft might have flown into an unexpected wind shear that possibly smashed it on the ground below.

The aircraft had been retired by Shaheen Air, due to not having sufficient Engine thrust power, which led this plane to be grounded just a month back. The same plane was acquired and placed in service by Bhoja Air in March 2012.The CAA officials knew that the plane is grounded due to technical faults, The Engine of this Boeing 737-200 had Thrust Combustion Issue.

On that fateful day, ATC had  received two warning from Meteorologic Department that clouds and winds from North are not suitable for allowing flights to land or take off. The Meteorologic Department, first gave the warning at 1500 PST and then again it at 1800 PST. Flight 213 was approaching to make the landing . Permission to land was given, but before that, as per the eye witnesses account, the  plane burst into flames, a ball of fire in the sky.

Timeline:

1. Meteorologic Department Informed Air Traffic Control at 1500 PST, That weather is not sufficient to land or to take off.

2. Meteorologist Department revised again given the same weather warning at 1800 PST that weather is not suitable for next an hour but ATC allowed some flights to take off and land.

3. ATC  gave the clearance, authorized Flight 213 to land, that’s when pilot turned Landing Gear DOWN. “ Means Wheels Open “. Aircraft was probably hardly 250 kmph or 170 knots and constantly slowing down to make a  proper landing approach.

4-Flight 213 ignored the warning because in various conditions pilots are experienced to land. Beside it private airlines save the fuel charges by not diverting as ideally it should have been done.

5-In Islamabad , ATC is still using old system ” ILS300 ” Instrument Landing System 300 means Aircraft should be in range of 300 meters to be fully engaged, which this aircraft wasn’t, after being engaged with ILS300 Radars and Aircraft’s instruments do the final adjustments to make easier and safer approach.

6- At 1840 PST Flight 213 went down, eye witness said flame of the fireball came down in a “mid air explosion ” . The air pocket, which made the plane stall, jammed and with in no time it lost the attitude, Pilot must have tried to increase thrust power , an immediate action in this situation.Plane will get out of control only when it stalls due to very slow flaps 20, rest the wind from the north played it’s part to bring it down, in seconds perhaps it would have been able to recover MAYBE if the thrust were fine .

7-This aircraft was grounded for almost 10 years by Shaheen Air due to the technical fault of  ” Engine Thrust ” It is important to have balanced thrust engine power when landing specially in bad weather condition.

A number of things went wrong here. The clearance given to the flight to land, the faulty engine thrust coupled with bad weather condition.

How many back-up planes does Bhoja Air has? Why was it’s license cancelled and then renewed? Were the flights insured?What compensation has been paid to the victims families?

Will Bhoja Airlines care to share?

The writer is a social activist and a blogger .This article(a longer version under a different title)ran first on his own blog.

RATIONALE FOR THE SARAIKI PROVINCE.

This is a Pakpotpourri Exclusive

By:Naveed Tajammal

Should or should not, Seraiki province be created? This subject is a hot potato these days with people opposing and supporting the idea. This article is an attempt to address the issue.

In any historical perspective,heritage,culture,ethnic & linguistic background must be ascertained through the lay of the land,the people and the language  spoken.Dialects do undergo slight changes with passage of time,with the  imposition of alien languages.However the shell,the basic grammar and the element of our mother Lhandha, a term awarded to our Sindhi by the linguists,has remained the same,as is evident,and will be explained subsequently.

We, the old residents of IVC {Indus Valley Civilization} have been in fold of Islam,if seen,as in whole,since about 800 years or so.Like the pride of a race leads to the invention of a royal progeny,similarly the pride of present Muslim tribe in IVC though much older then Islam,and its inception has the perpetual inducement to escape from the admission of an idolatrous ancestry.The major reason why most claim an Arab ancestry.

The conversion to islam resulted in a disavowing and erasing of the descent from a pagan past,and thus we lost our script,as well the glory.As these records tied the old tribes to the now idolatrous religion,hence they adopted the perso-arabic script,and the tilt to Arab ancestry.The language of men of letters was firstly Arabic,later came the Persian.All old records perished in the change.

Before entering the Islamic fold we had been equally staunch Buddhist.But  by then Buddhism was in its dying throes,and had lost its force as the way of life. It had even by then absorbed the serpent worship,which existed till late in our northern areas,and now claimed the Buddha as a God !

Whereas, Buddha himself never claimed Divinity himself,nor did the subsequent patriarchs ,who lasted for the next 1000 years or so.
In the post Islamic period the new indifferent muslim population,recently converted,and alien Arab rulers,as well the zealous new Iranian converts who spearheaded the Arab record making,keeping our past enimity alive,with them bundled Buddhism,Jainism and the new faith of Brahmanism,in one scope or head of idolatrous religion,and so never took interest in our past records,or studied our script.This lapse permitted the ever vigilant Brahman,to claim our past as his,so started the,new record making of the history in reverse,which continues,and stories of Vedic scriptures etc.
Language lives on,,it remains a living and growing form,as long as children learn it from their mothers it lasts,thus survive the old languages,and await their revival,at one time or the other as one sees.Hence the old term”Mah-Dar-e-Zaban” mother is the door to the tongue.Political or social reasons may establish a particular form of speech in a dominant position,as we see in the case of recent influx of Urdu & English. Introduced in our courts between 1850-54 by the British,superseding the Persian & Arabic.The oblique objective was to break the old indigenous,educational system, Maktab,Madressah,Ausaf & the Dar ul Al’lum.
With reference to our old Lhandha script in which Saraiki too was written, as were other languages by the non-muslims,who hated the perso-arabic script,Guru Nanak,the Prophet of Sikhs,never wrote himself,his disciples preserved,his quotes and sayings,orally but,Bhai Bala,communicated the same to his second Guru. Angat,who wrote the punjabi in our Lhandha script,because as yet,”Gurmukhi'{which means,mouth of the Guru} ,was in its development stages.Third and the fourth too used our Lhandha script,All these books and records as such existed till late 19th century and were inspected by Dr.Lietner himself at Goindwal, near Amritsar.[page-iii/iv,The History of Indigenous Education in Punjab till1882, by Dr.G.W.Lietner.1882}.
The fact remains our script now only exists in the Archives/record rooms.However the language spoken by tens of million, still survives,Therefore it must be given a chance for resurgence at all costs to thus bloom once again.
It was only in the post period after the annexation of The Sikh state,that the Punjab geographic term was imposed on us,by the new alien lot;the British.
As per the record of the Punjab Administration Report for 1854/55,para.188,the total population of the new entity till then was,12,717,821,it had 26,216 villages,2124 small towns,with population between 1000-5000; 76 towns,with-5000-10,000,31-cities,with 10,000-50,000;and Only four 1st class cities,namely;Peshawar-53,294,Multan-55,999,Lahore-94,153 & Amritsar-122,184.
Later by 1881census, the population with immigrations from other areas arose to 15,631,386 and as well the villages to 26,848.
Thus we find thanks to the Sikh rule and repeated past invasions from west and other epidemics like influenza and cholera,beside the bubonic plagues and famines,the region was totally depopulated.Hence the new canal colonies and the movement of pnjabi speakers in our regions,from our East.Rendering our local people as vagabond tribes and criminal tribes too,reduced our numbers.
Even today with the massive multi-ethnic mix,that we have,we find the footprints,of Saraiki spread all along western and Eastern tracts of the Sindh river.From Mianwali down to Ghotki and kashmore and further west till Jacobabad, and from Rahimyar Khan along Sutlej to its the upper reaches of Pak-pattan,as well along the Chenab,till the regions west of Jauharabad,the lands of Thal,crossing the Indus and till eastern Bannu,and lower till Tank,and Barkhan.
A large chunk by any standards.The very apex centre of our state.
Reverting back to the Saraiki,one of the present principle dialects of our mother language Lhandha,It no doubt has been corrupted by the vicissitudes of the time but should one study it closely we find it has with stood the onslaughts very bravely,and retained her honour well.
On the dialect of Saraiki or the old Jatki/Multani, a dictionary was published byA.Jukes in 1900,and the author states on pages-iii-iv of the book commenting on the difference between Punjabi and our ‘Jatki’ and quotes,that,Dr.H.Martin,the man who had earlier proofread the Punjabi Dictionary of ”Bhai Maya Singh’ before its publication in 1895 was also asked to proofread the Jatki Dictionary of Jukes,and had found only two words common !
All Lhandha dialects remain mutually intelligible,hence cannot be under any yardstick be termed as separate languages.
Even with a passage of time and over 110 years gone by i.e after Jukes Dictionary,and a massive infusion of loan words,we still see,that our Saraiki  retains its character.Two main official dictionaries of the Saraiki exist,the first published by ”Bahauddin Zakaria University Multan in 2007,authored by Sardar Sa’ad d’Ullah Khan Khetran, the other by Shaukat Mughal,published by Saraiki Adabi Board,in 2010:The Shaukat tu Lughat’. I have studied both, separating each loan word of the Foreign languages,which were found to be Arabic,Farsi,Hindi-Urdu,Punjabi,Turki,Balluchi,Pushto,sansktric,English etc.

Briefly stating,the dictionary of Sardar Sad’ullah as a case study we find that,it has in total 38,979 words,in which the loan words of above quoted alien languages are Arabi-2948,Farsi-1353,Turki-09,Balluchi-60,English-585,Urdu-267,and leaving aside other,of Punjabi,just 36 words.
The point to remember is expunging all these loan words and subsituting them from our own current different dialects of Lhandha,is a easy Job !
The major reason why all of our Lhandha dialects are mutually intelligible, is because,of the geographic boundaries of our old suba of Multan,even within the last 1000 years as stated by Syed Ali Hajwari in his book,”Kashaf al Mahjoob’ that when he came to Lahore it was a Qasba of the Multan Suba,the Old Lahore was never a city on the trade routes, both major passed,one above her and the other below,via Multan,and through the Sanghar Pass,in the Roh-e- Sulaman Range,from its eastern most range,it crossed Bar-khan,Chacha,Choti-ala,Duki,Harnai,and from Pisheen,it went towards,Zabul or later Ghuzz’nih,or Beyond further north,and one went towards Herat,or lower towards Zahdain and further beyond.
The fact remains,till the transportation from kachchi plains of the Saraiki speakers by Naseer l,the Barrohi Khan of Kalat and also from the Duki and to its east,as these tribes had been loyal to the Kalhora’s, the Wardens of the Central western Marches,and refused passage to Nadir Shah,in early 1739 AD. Thus the axe fell on them and they were pushed towards the Trans-Cis Indus regions suplemented by the Balluchi and the ruling Barrohi clans.
Should we study the last Administrative Boundaries of Multan,which had Saraiki,as the language spoken,and Persian being that of writings,as per the custom in vogue,in all Muslim empires then.Using the same Perso-Arabic Script,The North Eastern part of Multan Suba was a peaked intrusion in Lahore Suba{ West of  Tihara,Southof Kasur,West of Bhatindha,and Bhatnair},and touching on the lower side Dehli Suba,below which,came Ajmer Suba,to south of the Multan Suba was,’Thatta Sarkar’ administrated from Multan.
To west,due to chaotic conditions in Persia, around 1700 AD,the Barrohi,who were the Forward Wardens of the Mughal Empire had lately been attacking Qandhar Fort,and had extended the Mughal boundaries of Suba Mutlan much further into the old Qandhar Suba.
The stress being that SARAIKI was the main dialect spoken ! It would be out of scope here to go in details of the dialects spoken in the Thatta Sarkar. The Punjabi geographic entity was thrust on us after 1849,that being the extension of the old headquarters of the British when they moved in here !
Later came in bulk the Punjabi speakers,in the Nine Canal Colonies,though the original Sikh and Hindu left after 1947.However the refuges from the British East Punjab were allotted lands in the same colonies.
It has taken years,from the,Imposition of 1871 ACT,that our original” Bar”people,named as”Jangali’,residents, now emerge from the Stigma of being till 1947,in the Classification, of Criminal tribes and the Vagabond lot !
Now a very brief glance at the term Punjab.At or about the Arab invasion and later the Hakra was the main river of this region,the feeders being the other 4  i,e Sutlej,Chitang,Sarsuwati and the Ghagghar.It is these 5  rivers which are the ‘Punj’ and Ab’ in  Farsi,means the rivers.And the language thus is Punjabi. However now a look,as to how it came in being,These five rivers area had been from remote times the meeting ground of two very different and distinct languages,The Western ”Lhandha’,and the Eastern,of the Ganga-Jumna Do-aba,the old Midland,the parent of western Hindi,as the new terms go,defined by the linguist of the 19th century.Which gave birth to Punjabi.
Lastly it is this term Punjabi,which is becoming the cause of much rift within our STATE.
And hence,this short paper explaining who the actual Punjabi is !
It should be kept in mind that we the old tribes have always given refuge to those who came in our fold,from West,South West,East or South East.But, it is time the immigrants allow us to retain our rights as well. And revive our past !
This I feel is not asking for much?
Naveed Tajammal is a Investigative Historian with over 28 years of experience.

Agni-V Test, US Support & the Whipping Boy!

Yasmeen Ali

India successfully tested ballistic missile with a range of more than 5,000km-going uncriticised by USA which has shown an obsession over the years about a ‘supposed’nuclear programme by Iran, and a huge concern for the failed rocket launch by North Korea a few days earlier. India has increased its military spending by 13% this fiscalyear, to roughly US $38 billion(The Independent UK, dated 20th April, 2012 ,article titled, ”India’s nuclear ambition must not be ignored”). Yet it has not raised US ire-or eyebrows!

India, the bully of the region has happily announced its entry in an exclusive club withinthe comity of nations having the capability to hit 5,000 kilometers. Chinese newspaper,Global Times(Beijing), hit out at Western countries for double standards for not condemning the test firing of the Agni-V.”The West chooses to overlook India’s disregard of nuclear and missile control treaties,”the editorial said. “The West remains silent on the fact that India’s military spending increased by 17 percent.” LINK: http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/warns-04192012110819.html

Double standards it is!

There is a club within a club, of countries of the world who can get away with murder(literally) while others must behave or face the stick of the Master. Pakistan being the favorite whipping boy!

The question here is the geo-political interest of US in the region. The question here is the need to hold back China emerging as a super power in near future, if at all.  The need here is to support a country within the region to act, or seem to act as a deterrent to China.  Obvious choice: India.What USA had completely overlooked in this game of regional hegemony is when you let the genie out of the bottle, it will refuse to go back in the bottle. It can one day, turn upon the master, once his heart’s desire of being let out is fulfilled.

USA has learnt no lessons from history. In it’s short term policy of countering Russian influence in Afghanistan , it had created Mujaheddin(now re christened Taliban).Today, the specter of the ghost hounds them. But not really a ghost is it?

Now, blubbering in Afghanistan, caught in a trap of it’s own making, USA does not know how to extricate itself from her folly!This strategy has led to the need by US to involve India more in Afghanistan to the complete denial of genuine interest of Pakistan, her ‘ally’ in WOT. USA is overlookingthe fact that the security environment in South Asia has always been guided bytraditional rivalry, Pakistan and India being the  two players. USA cannot wish away the reason for three wars between India and Pakistan. The reasons, no international forum has shown interest in resolving. According to a paper by Syed Shahid Hussain Bokhari for the Berkley Journal of Social Sciences, published Jan 2011, the strategic balance in the region is maintained by Nuclear Deterrence and role of major powers(USA).He correctly states that  US tilt towards India will put Pakistan interests at stake.

USA desire to support India is an expression to maintain hegemonic superiority over her perceived rival in the region. India has not accepted any legal binding against nuclear,” nuclear testing by India might enable it to wield nuclear weapons with much larger explosive power than those currently in the Indian arsenal; that in turn would allow important changes in Indian nuclear strategy- for example, it might let India target Chinese or Pakistani nuclear sites that were previously safe; driving Beijing orIslamabad to develop new weapons themselves or to change their currently restrained strategies for using nuclear arms”.( Michael A. Levi and Charles D Ferguson, U.S.-India Nuclear Cooperation A Strategy of Moving Forward. Council Special Report, Council

on Foreign Relations, 2006: 11). With the new Indo_US partnership in offing , India will use her status with the US to be used against Pakistan, it’s traditional rival. The equanimity with which USA has accepted the new ballistic missile fired by India is an example. This new nexus will, at some point compel Pakistan, for the sake of her survival and the need to counter India, into seeking options where USA may not figure.

For USA then, it could turn into a self defeating exercise and leading her in a trap of her own making .In this dangerous game , the double standards being indulged in by USA are being well read, “India missile test has few critics, unlike NKorea,” read the headline to a widely-distributed AP story, which said the test caused barely a ripple — even in China — just days after North Korea was globally vilified for a failed rocket launch. ( The Times of India , published 20th April 2012, titled, ”US refrains from criticizing Agni V test,praises India’s non- proliferation record” by Chidanand Rajghatta). LINK: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-refrains-from-criticizing-Agni-V-test-praises-Indias-non-proliferation-record/articleshow/12738475.cms

USA is a weakened nation today. After it’s long drawn out war in Afghanistan with nothing to show for it(unless you count destruction of the country and killing of civilians, urinating on dead bodies as a victory), and the war on Iraq, it needs strategic partners to help her, in spite of a weak economy due to long drawn out wars, in maintaining her hegemony over China, the upcoming challenger to USA’s status. This will lead to USA’s adventurism into forming new alliances at the expense of old ones,whatever it takes!

Leaving Pakistan, the favorite whipping boy, tossed aside like used tissue, to fend for herself. Pakistan will do well to understand the need of USA to do so. Pakistan should look for options here as her very equation in the region is at stake!

The interesting paradox of US policy is the inbuilt self defeating mechanism. By leaning completely towards India( why am I reminded here of a parallel: USA’s role in Israel vs Iran?)it control on Pakistan has to weaken. This will ensure, entrance in the corridor of the arena of others interested in having a foot in .Unfortunately, USA has over the years shown a fixation for short term policies.

The writer is a university professor based in Lahore & may be reached at

yasmeen.a.9@gmail.com

A Tribute to (Guppoo)Cecil Chaudhry :An Officer and a Gentleman!

This is a Pakpotpourri Exclusive

A humane and personal account Of Cecil Chaudhry-the man!

By:Group Captain Ali Kazim(R) (Awarded Tamgha-e-Basalat in 1965 war)

Cecil Chaudhry, or Guppoo(for his treasure of anecdotes that never exhausted) as he was known to his friends, died on 13th April 2012. So ended my 53 year old relationship with him. Cyril, his elder brother was my course mate when I joined P.A.F Academy Risalpur in 1957. I recall, during one winter break,these used to be pretty short, Cyril invited some course mates to spend the break at his house. It was a big house. The “boys” bunked in a big sized room with extra mattresses and comforters.That is when I met Cec. Cec he remained to me always.My friends planned to go out,to proverbially paint the town red. Cec asked me to stay back. Stay back I did having immediately struck a cord with him.We went for a walk till we got to a Church compound.Sitting on the steps of the main building, out came a flask from his hip pocket. One swig and it was offered to me.That was my first taste of scotch! Ofcourse drinks were not banned back then.We ended up at the Burt Institute where a dance competition was arranged. Cec’s partner was already there. He was a great dancer, light on his feet. They went on to win the first prize.

That day was the start of a beautiful friendship!

Most know Cec. as a war hero. He was.Especially the mission at Halwara in 1965. I would like to share here the events of that fateful day of 6th September 1965.  Prior to the 1965 war, P.A.F. was operating in the Runn of Kutch from Mauripur Air Base. The Air Force was convinced that war with India was inevitable and therefore was prepared. We knew our targets, our formation composition and from which field to operate. The time over target (TOT) was simultaneous for all assigned targets.In 1964 I was posted Test Pilot and Quality Control Officer at Mauripur,thereby posted out of No 14 Squadron. I was under the command of Officer Commanding Maintenance Wing and not The O.C. Flying Wing. However, I flew Runn of Kutch missions, whenever required and was to be attached to 32 Fighter Wing, Mauripur in case of war.On the morning of 2nd. September I was #3 in a 4 aircraft formation lead by Shaheed ‘Butch’ Ahmed and reached Sargodha around 7am. That day I flew two missions in support of our Army heading for Akhnur in Kashmir.  I went back to Mauripur on the 5th. of September and on the 6th.morning took off from Mauripur under the leadership of Sqn.Ldr. Azim Daudpota (Later Air Marshal Daudpota, SJ) in a large formation which was to land at Risalewala and my assigned target was IAF Base Halwara, whenever the strike was ordered by the Air Staff. However, we were told to proceed to Sargodha where we parked the aircraft (F-86s) in the strike area pens.

On the afternoon of 6th September,  preemptive strikes were ordered as planned earlier. Here, I must mention that the Indian Army had launched a massive attack, backed by Armour to capture Lahore and have a drink in the evening at Punjab Club/Lahore Gymkhana. Our Army was not prepared for such a massive onslaught. P.A.F had not planned for any extensive Air Support for our Army in this sector but the very sovereignty of Pakistan was at stake. The PAF, under the command of dynamic leader like Air Marshal Nur Khan, was ordered to neutralize the Indian Army designs. Despite our meager resources, our 2nd. to none fighter pilots flew continuous mission the whole day.

Standing L to R: C/T Aslam, Baseer,Rashid Bhatti,Saleem(Mullan)29th.GD(P),(Late)Zahoor,Qasid.Sitting L to R::Ali Kazim,28th.GD.Flt. Lt.Afzal Chaudhry,Sqn.Leader Rafique,Flt. Lt. Saleem Iqbal(Late),26th GD. Moin 27th GD 

Coming back to the strikes on IAF Air Bases. Well past the time that the aircraft should have taken off to strike Halwara, I was told that I was required for briefing by Sqn.Ldr. Rafiqui for Halwara strike.Rafiqui Sahib was briefing,as he sat n the ground. Hardly a few minutes had passed when Flt.Lt. Yunus Hussain walked in. He had just come back from a mission from Lahore. Rafiqui Saheb asked me, ‘Kazim if you dont mind let me take Yunus, he is my Flight Commander and you follow in the 2nd. wave”. So I got up and went for briefing of the 2nd wave of four that was to be lead by Sqn.Ldr. Moin ur Rab (Later Air Vice Marshal,). We were briefed and were to fly the aircraft that had been brought that morning from Mauripur. We were shocked to find that they had neither been refueled nor rearmed!.

In the meantime, some of the senior colleagues had approached the Base Commander, (late) Air Commodore ‘Mitty’ Masud, HJ to call off this mission as it was too late and Halwara would be up in the air with all their aircraft.It will be pertinent to mention here that on this day, 6th. Sep. at around 1400hrs. we had sent a 104 to Halwara to check out the activity there and that would have warned them that something was up. Additionally, other IAF Bases had already been struck therefore there is no doubt that Halwara was ready to face a strike by PAF and would not be taken by surprise like other bases.

Regarding calling off the mission, to the best of my knowledge, Base Commander had agreed and called Air Headquarters to permit cancellation of mission by them. Certainly not the Air Chief, I am sure. Rafiqui, the lion hearted , began his take off roll and during the take off one formation member had a technical failure and was forced to abort take off. That left three Sqn.Ldr. Rafiqui (leader), Flt.Lt. Cecil (No.2) and Flt.Lt. Yunus Hussain (No.3) When this formation was heading for Halwara, Sqn.Ldr. M.M. Alam was returing fro a mission and he called up on the radio and asked Rafiqui Saheb not to proceed as he had spotted a large number of Indian Fighter Aircraft in the vicinity of Halwara. But Rafiqui and his colleagues had already signed and delivered a cheque in the name of their NATION where the amount column had said ” Up to and Including My Life.”  Rafiqui, lovingly called RAF by his mates carried on, knowing fully well what was the expected outcome. In the Air Combat of 3 vs innumerable, Yunus was shot down, Rafiqui shot down 2 before his guns jammed and he handed over the lead to Cecil who shot down 3 and overwhelmed, disengaged and used all the skill at his command to evade the pursuing IAF Fighters and landed at Sargodhia with the sun setting on a day which we, the colleagues of  Shaheed Sqn.Ldr. Sarfraz Rafiqui, HJ. Shaheed Flt.Lt. Yunus Hussain, SJ. and Gp.Capt. Cecil Chaudhry, SJ, S.Bt. (RIP) will never ever forget.

The evening of 6th. September, 1965 was our Sham-e-Ghariban. Cecil and I stood next to the mess swimming pool, which was as empty as our hearts. The night was dark and quiet, the lights were dim and the sadness was just so loud. We just just stood in silence.A silence that spoke louder than words. Then Cec. broke the wall of silence saying  “why are they saying that my leader is alive?”, I replied, “Cec you were there and you know the gloom in the heart of all pilots and men, a bit of hope is required to let them sleep. We have to fight again, come sun rise”.

As I write this, a tribute to one of the bravest man I knew, and all those who gave up their lives for our motherland, I reaffirm, that the men of Pak Armed Forces pledge their lives to the Nation.That blank cheque the motherland can call upon any time, to deliver!

The writer is based in Karachi.

STUDY- IED sufferings in AF-Pak

This is a cross post from Media Point by the blog Editor on March 30th, 2012. 

The Perceptors Group took up an in depth study on issue of human sufferings specifically due to Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) attacks causing immense human loss in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The group observed  some of the reports, pointing fingers towards Pakistan for either involvement or having lax control on IED material transportation which is a main cause of concern.

To ensure the credibility of report, the study group collected secondary data from diversified sources ranging from studies done by other credible groups, individual research of intellectuals and government based facts and figures released from time to time. The below mentioned data also include information from US and Pakistan’s officially released figures and international NGOs, Think tanks working on both Pakistan and Afghanistan. The report also has some primary data from updated government official reports.

The report intends highlighting the human sufferings due to terrorism on one end and on the other exposes the perceptions being raised and played by interested elements.

 

Perceptions

  • US Senator Richard Blumenthal, a Democrat, in US Senate hearing raised the issue of IEDs, claiming that Pakistan remained the main source of the materials used for making the devices. During same hearing Gen James Mattis termed it an area of frustration and serious topic of dialogue with Pakistan. (Read here) US Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, who serves on the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, wrote in a column in newsmax that “America must realize that Pakistan is the “Benedict Arnold” to America in the war on terror. The Administration’s request to send more money to Pakistan must be denied.” (Read here)
  • Same is the voice of US military, according to US JOINT IED DEFEAT ORGANIZATION (JIEDDO), the Pentagon’s lead agency for combating makeshift bombs, the leaky border with Pakistan remains a problem. JIEDDO says that Pakistan contributes 80 percent of the fertilizer-based homemade bombs in Afghanistan that cause 90 percent of U.S. casualties.

Facts

  1. The IEDs attacks alone in Pakistan has taken lives of 2707soldiers whereas 1188 NATO soldiers became prey of IEDs in Afghanistan from 2006 to 2012.
  2. In 2010/2011 the causality figures of only Pakistan’s Civil Armed forces (CAF) operating in Balochistan  and in Fata is 176. The number of Army and other LEA in area is expected to be much more.
  3. As of 2010, Pakistani check posts on the Pakistan-Afghan border numbered 821 against 112 check posts set up by NATO-US-Afghan troops on their side. The NATO and U.S forces comprise of 41 countries therefore lack priority to curbing cross-border movement.
  4. Total number of Pakistan’s troops operating on Pak-Afghan border is approx 140,000  and NATO-ISAF are approx 130,386.
  5. Pakistan has undertaken major  efforts to stop the free flow of Urea to Afghanistan including cutting dealership in northern region and changing the color of fertilizer to track it but still this fertilizer is coming  and being used against  security forces engaged in FATA and Balochistan area and Afghanistan.
  6. The data compairing number of IED attacks and number of casualties show that from 2006 to 2012 on Afghan side 44659 IED attacks casued 118 deaths and on Pak side 4828 IED attacks caused 2707 deaths . This shows better techniques of identifying and handling IED attacks by coalition forces on Afghan side.
  7. According to a Telegraph report of 2009, “US Marines captured a vast cache of IEDs made from agricultural ammonium nitrate fertiliser in 25 kilogram bags indistinguishable from the thousands of tons of fertiliser supplied to Afghanistan under Western aid programmes. It has long been obvious that many of the roadside bombs used to kill British and other Western troops are made from fertiliser paid for by UK and other Western taxpayers.” (Read here)
  8. A US delegation has visited a fertilizer industry in Multan during December 2011 to seek the cooperation to stop the flow of fertilizer.  According to Fawad Mukhtar CEO of Pak Arab Fertilizers, ”It is wrong to single Pakistan and us out, especially as we are doing all that they want us to do, We have told them that this is made throughout the region and Pakistan is not the only source. We have also told them that huge quantities of this fertilizer are made in Iran, Uzbekistan and across Central Asia.”
  9. The company involved in production of fertilizers has changed the identification of bags by using different colours and has cut down dealership in the northern region and reduced its supplies. Moreover samples of fertilizer handed over to US delegation experimenting colour change. Efforts are in hand for legislation for production, sale and use of fertilizers in Pakistan. While on the contrary if one looks at US history, it took them 15 years after Oklahoma bombing, for legislation.
  10. According to agricultural reports Pakistan is amongst those countries having acutest shortage of water and per capita water availability ranks dead last in the list of 26 Asian countries. The US authorities have totally ignored this fact that huge quantities of ammonium nitrate are produced in half a dozen neighboring countries of Afghanistan – Iran, Uzbekistan, Central Asia and China with 68% nitric acid composition. European countries also make huge quantity of ammonium nitrate which goes up to 2.89 million tons.
  11. Executives with the US chemical manufacturer Honeywell traveled to Pakistan to pitch Pakarab on the merits of Sulf-N 26, a fertilizer that combines ammonium nitrate with ammonium sulfate, a fertilizer and fire retardant. However, tests carried out in the US showed it could still be used in the production of bombs and the project was shelved, according to Pakarab and Best, the expert at the Joint IED Defeat Organization. Honeywell, which said it had not been informed about the tests, disputed that conclusion. (Read here) This report indicates that investment on Sulf-N26 can be risky if it does not prevent making of IEDs from fertilizers.

Conclusion

In backdrop of  perceived accusations on Pakistan and its forces, data was collected to ascertain facts. An effort was made to collect data on causalities in general and IEDs related causalities in particular to draw a comparison and come out with conclusion to help find the intensity of problem and give a way forward for security decision makers and help them make their policy based on fact and fight false perceptions. All conclusions are supported by figures and graphs included in the study. Main conclusions are as under:

  1. The collected figures and data draw a gloomy picture contrary to US view and general perception of the international media. Unfortunately, Pakistan never presented its case to the world.  The fact is that Pakistan is biggest ever victim of IEDs attack and Afghanistan and NATO troops are far behind in causalities and loss. NATO lost 1188 soldiers and 2707 Pakistani security personnel scarified their lives due to IEDs attack from 2006 to 2012( See Figure and Table.3).
  2. Data conclude that both sides of the Pak-Afghan borders are under attack by IED. However Pakistan has taken more practical  steps by constructing 812 Check posts on its side against 112 check posts being manned by NATO-ISAF to control the approximately 2,640 kilometers long border with Pakistan.
  3. When compared the number of casualty per IED attack it was significantly found that human loss on Pakistan side were much more than on Afghanistan side ( Figure.1 and Figure.2).
  4. On civilians count, the annual death toll from terrorist attacks has risen from 164 in 2003 to 3318 in 2009, with a total of 35,000 Pakistanis killed as of 2010 and this toll is on the rise.
  5. According to the government of Pakistan, the direct and indirect economic costs of terrorism from 2000-2010 is $68 billion. US Ambassador to Pakistan, Camron Munter publicly acknowledged this loss, “as you and I both know, the (IEDs) threat is equally dire in Pakistan.  In 2010, there were about 3,700 Pakistani civilian causalities from IEDs and home-made explosives – road-side bombs, car bombs, suicide bombs.  This nearly equals the numbers for Iraq and Afghanistan combined.” (Read here)

Pakistan has taken many steps to stop the menace of IEDs attack, rather than cooperating with Pakistan, blame game and putting conditions on Pakistan has undermine the efforts and will result in favour of hostile forces. US Gen. John R. Allen also admitted the IED problem to Pakistan in a press briefing (dated 26 March 2012) that “we would always enjoy Pakistani military assistance across the border, but I will tell you that they’re deeply engaged across the border.  In the last couple of years, they’ve suffered 3,000 dead and a couple of thousand wounded, and they have an IED problem from the Taliban on their side of the border that is substantial as well. “ (Read here)

NATO and US associate these IEDs attack to the free flow of fertilizer from Pakistan but Pakistani authorities have made  efforts to stop the eminent threat from publicly available fertilizers. Emerging Asia’s report on “Afghanistan’s Fertilizer Market” reveals that Pakistan is not the single exporter of fertilizers to Afghanistan. It is usually imported to Afghanistan largely from the US, Australia, China,  Pakistan, with smaller quantities from Tajikistan, Iran, Uzbekistan and Saudi Arabia. Another fertilizer used in lesser quantity is Mono Ammonium Phosphate from Iran. Fertilizer from the US and Australia is typically exported to Pakistan where it is repackaged and then exported to Afghanistan. (Read more). Afghanistan’s borders are porous from all neighboring states and these fertilizers can be smuggled from all sides.

 

Recommendations

After having analyzed the  primary and secondary data showing problems faced by Pakistan and NATO forces the report recommends:

  1. Pakistan needs to presented its case to the world.  The fact is that Pakistan is the main victim of IEDs attack and its efforts have not got due coverage. The facts brought out in the study must be given maximum projection.
  2. JIEDDO should expand its role by helping Pakistani authorities and security forces to eliminate rise in IEDs attacks. Sharing of Air Surveillance and on ground IEDs detection hardware (i.e PTDS, PGSS, GPR, Goldie, devil pup etc.) can be helpful to neutralize the threat along Pak-Afghan borders.
  3. On diplomatic and political grounds, US congressional representatives and state official should realize the difficulties and contributions of Pakistan to the war on terrorism. As Ambassador Munter and Gen. John R. Allen made a clean breast that IEDs problem is not only with NATO forces but also a substantial issue on the Pakistani side. it took U.S 15 years after 1995 Oklahoma bombing, for legislation.
  4. NATO must raise number of check posts along Pak-Afghan border, less security is favouring hostile forces to move freely on Afghan side and reorganize their strength to hit back on Pakistan’s side.
  5. The international community  be made to realize that Pakistan is amongst  countries having acute shortage of water. Its per capita water availability ranks dead last in the list of 26 Asian countries that’s why fertilizer is crucial requirement for agricultural sector. Viable solutions be considered for Pakistan.
  6. Pakistan’s government should hold an international conference on Terrorism especially IEDs effects on Pakistan society and economy. All regional stakeholders should be invited to discuss measures and share available technology to save human lives.

STUDY DATA

( Due to incomplete registered data on Pakistan side the below may not be the total figure but gives fair idea of the problem)

Improvised Explosive Device (IED) Attacks and Deaths (Security Personnel) in Pakistan, 2006-2012

Year

IED Attacks Deaths
2006
646
222
2007
1,046
376
2008
912
814
2009
1,308
1,104
2010
373
76
2011
510
100
2012 uptill mid march
29
15
Total
4824
2707

(Figure and Table.1)

The above-mentioned data and graph represents that almost every other IED attack on Pakistani security forces was more fatal than the attacks on NATO forces in Afghanistan. On Pak side IED attack fig of 4824 may in actual be a bit more as this record mostly include frontier Corps.

Note:- Security forces figure of 2010/2011 pertains to Civil Armed Forces (CAF) operating in Fata and Balochistan. Figures of other LEAs and Army operating in area are expected to be much more.

IED Attacks and Deaths(NATO) in Afghanistan,  2006-2012

 

 

Year

IED Attacks Deaths
2006
797
41
2007
1147
78
2008
1632
152
2009
9,304
275
2010
15,225
368
2011
16,554
252
2012 uptill mid March
Not Available
22

Total

44659 1188

(Figure and Table.2)

These statistics shows that although IEDs explosions are higher in number but causalities toll is far low than the Pakistani scarifies.  It is noted that there are 50 troops contributed nations in NATO-ISAF and total strength of NATO-ISAF in Afghanistan is 130,386 this figure is taken from ISAF troop number and placement as of 6 January, 2012. (Read here)

Comparison of IED related Deaths of Pak and NATO (Security Personnel), 2006-2012

Note:-Pakistan’s Security forces figure of 2010/2011/2012 is not complete and only pertains to Civil Armed Forces (CAF) operating in Fata and Balochistan. Figures of other LEAs and Army operating in area are expected to be much more.

Year

Pakistani  Casualties NATO Casualities
2006
222
41
2007
376
78
2008
814
152
2009
1,104
275
2010
76
368
2011
100
252
2012 uptill mid March
15
22
Total
2707
1188

(Figure and Table.3)

Combine comparison of NATO and Pakistani causalities shows that so far Pakistani security forces are actual victims of IEDs attacks.

 

Recommendations

After having analyzed the  primary and secondary data showing problems faced by Pakistan and NATO forces the report recommends:

  1. Pakistan needs to presented its case to the world.  The fact is that Pakistan is the main victim of IEDs attack and its efforts have not got due coverage. The facts brought out in the study must be given maximum projection.
  2. JIEDDO should expand its role by helping Pakistani authorities and security forces to eliminate rise in IEDs attacks. Sharing of Air Surveillance and on ground IEDs detection hardware (i.e PTDS, PGSS, GPR, Goldie, devil pup etc.) can be helpful to neutralize the threat along Pak-Afghan borders.
  3. On diplomatic and political grounds, US congressional representatives and state official should realize the difficulties and contributions of Pakistan to the war on terrorism. As Ambassador Munter and Gen. John R. Allen made a clean breast that IEDs problem is not only with NATO forces but also a substantial issue on the Pakistani side. it took U.S 15 years after 1995 Oklahoma bombing, for legislation.
  4. NATO must raise number of check posts along Pak-Afghan border, less security is favouring hostile forces to move freely on Afghan side and reorganize their strength to hit back on Pakistan’s side.
  5. The international community  be made to realize that Pakistan is amongst  countries having acute shortage of water. Its per capita water availability ranks dead last in the list of 26 Asian countries that’s why fertilizer is crucial requirement for agricultural sector. Viable solutions be considered for Pakistan.
  6. Pakistan’s government should hold an international conference on Terrorism especially IEDs effects on Pakistan society and economy. All regional stakeholders should be invited to discuss measures and share available technology to save human lives.

Original publishing link: http://www.mediapoint.pk/study-ied-sufferings-in-af-pak/

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