WHO PUT A LID ON OUR POLICY FORMULATION?

This is a Pakpotpourri Exclusive

By:Admiral Fasih Bokhari

Former Chief of Naval Staff

Something has been worrying me for the past few years.

Pakistan lies on the cusp of America’s Middle East, Central Asian, and South Asian policies. The pivots of American policies in these three regions are Iran, China, and India respectively. Pakistan needs to nuance and balance its own policies in all three, because the US is the super power that defines narratives to which weaker nations must adjust and find political space that allows them an acceptable secure niche. Opposing a super power as a weak divided nation would be suicidal. Adjusting to a superpower till we are stronger and can claim more political space is possible. What we must not do is make our policies for all three regions subservient to India centricity. India centric and Pakistan centric are not the same.

About three or four years ago America executed an exterior maneuver, almost launched an attack on Iran, and then pulled back. What is our position on a possible conventional attack on Iran? We need to be very clear where our current interests lie on the Iran issue because it is the fulcrum of American policy in the Middle East. Pakistan’s Middle East Policy does not appear to be comprehensive and may not be responding to the real interests of our people as opposed to the interests of our power centers, and is obviously not being signaled or read clearly. The same can be said of many aspects of our India and China policies. Policies not rooted in the people’s interests lead to weak nationhood which is what we are facing today.

Can Iran, the focus of enmity for GCC and Israel, be attacked conventionally without de-nuclearizing Pakistan? This was the question that started worrying me 3 or 4 years ago. Pakistan never indicated that its nuclear umbrella covered Iran or any other Muslim country. Pakistan had consistently supported the security of the GCC countries, and had never threatened Israel. That was a policy not based on reciprocity, given GCC funding of our militant religious right and close Indo-Israel military ties; but it may have suited our power centers.

There is obvious Indian interest to have Pakistan de-nuclearized. But it is perhaps only in the Iran context that it suits American, GCC, and Israeli interests to de-nuclearize Pakistan.

Is Pakistan’s deterrent seen as an umbrella for Iran? Was the pull back based more on Russia, or China’s position? What could be the Russian or Chinese response given the strong economic linkages of mutual dependence of those countries with the US? Is the uncertainty of Pakistan’s position a factor? Are our nuclear policy signals being read clearly? Are we even signaling to countries of that region? Who is pushing this “fear of Pak nuclear” narrative? Are we fated to remain India centric? Have we devised a counter narrative acceptable to all countries involved? These were very vexing questions.

In the current American, Indian, Israel, and GCC narrative mindset it makes sense for them to put our military on the back foot, and support our political dispensation against the military, in the name of greater “democracy”. The only way to take out Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program is by neutralizing the will to resist of the Armed Forces and further destabilizing the country to a stage that the government and people voluntarily demand it’s dismantling under international supervision.

Without it’s nuclear deterrent Pakistan’s very existence could be at stake because we do not fit into the future US paradigms for South Asia, Middle East, or Central Asia due to our “cold war” with India, “historic” relations with Iran, and “time tested” ties to China. We made a point of slapping America in the face with our three horse policy (specially the China horse) when Washington decided on mission creep into Pakistan in their last strategic review. Raymond Davis and the scent of Osama unleashed the current escalation of covert ops and psywar that is destabilizing Pakistan.

Who has put a lid on our policy formulation and review process? The world has moved on. Can we possibly also move forward sitting astride our three dead horse policy? Where is the real-politik narrative to protect our people’s interests?

I am not suggesting sudden U-turns or continuing current suicidal policy without regard to consequences. I am saying that we need to re-arrange the priority of our interests, and then strategize to first find our niche to ensure our own survival, second to buy time to become economically and socially stronger, and third to keep reviewing the priority of our interests to keep gaining more and more political space as and when possible. The review of National Security Policy can be an infrequent process. The execution of strategies evolved under the NSP is a day to day process in all sectors of governance.

Crisis management is not Policy Formulation, or strategy execution. Crisis management is a failure of both.

 

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Comments

  • S. Cadri  On July 9, 2011 at 12:32 pm

    But Sir you are not even touching upon issues ailing Pakistan. None of the countries you have mentioned has any thing to do with our utter incompetence in so many areas of governance.

    Sir please talk of those issues too. Somehow I feel you are trying to find fault in others and not ourselves. I don’t think that should be the approach.

    You have asked lots of questions without answering any. The biggest enemy of Pakistan is “Tolerance to mismanagement, bad governance, incompetence, corruption, lawlessness, illegal arms etc.” These are all in our hand. No country is involved in this.

  • Mohammad Chaudhry  On July 9, 2011 at 12:33 pm

    Bravo Yasmeen for making a candid exhaustive effort to analyse the prevailing situation and put-up remedial steps as per your own perspective by raising some pertinent questions and showing better options for future strategic planning.However your thought process,raises some new questions before expecting some positive outcome of your inputs as under:
    a) Do those weilding our power centers have intellectual capacity,sincerety of purpose and adequate level of self-denial to undertake the recommened exercise?
    b) Do we have integerated fora of conscientious-minded candid Pakistanis to mobilize public opinion to pressurize weilders of power centers in case they fail to deliver as per the demand of time and dictates of national interest versus their personal interest?
    c) Have heads of our civic bodies and media tycoons taken some initiative in this direction or concerned Pakistanis like you and Bokhari sahib made some move so far and worked out some doable plan for the same?
    I think that there is enough food for thought for concerned,candid and conscientious-minded pakistanis to start cudgling their minds as early as possibl.
    MSC

    • GRK  On July 10, 2011 at 3:03 am

      yes sir fully agree with your point of view. this is a big question. the restrain shown by our Gen APK towards incompetence and corruption raises the hope that before next election a care taker govt should get the correct voters list. across the board accountability. the major test at the moment is hope from our top economist who is setting examples,recently news published about reshuffling of joint secretaries in ministry of finance,just for the misuse of govt cars and getting them repaired to buy them on depreciated price,soon. the other challenge DR AHS faces is getting 700000 major players not paying taxes,including lot of ministers and members of parliment.if an independent election commission disqualify a number of such filthy rich tax evaders than there is a hope of the infant child of democracy start taking shape and hopefully we may see birth of a strong institutions. only than we can hope for a better future for our coming generation. our time is our. we are going to face severe hardships in the ages in people fall in my category,over 60 and witnessing the sinking of ship standing on the shore expecting a miracle that GOD almighty help will come to salvage the ship sinking. mind you ALLAH only helps those who help them selves. MANNA SALWA will not fall from sky for such a rotten society’s. HUMBLE SUGGESTION FOR OUR DEDICATED FEDERAL FINANCE MINISTER. SIR please make the next budget keeping in mind supply of goods,food ,sugar,aatta and other necessary items for 40 million people living in afghainistan.the drug lords get dollars and against that they come to peshawar and buy above goods from our country markets thus there is shortage and manipulators of hoarders adds the agony of scarcity for our own country men.60%already living under lowest poverty lines.grk

  • Zafar  On July 9, 2011 at 12:39 pm

    It is very nice of our think tank to discuss issues about the future of Pakistan, the observations from Admiral Fasih is therefore commendable.But what can the nation do when their rulers are corrupt and are sold to the superpowers.Who would develop strategies and who would approve it.I dont see any progress in Pakistan about the future game being planned for the region.
    Zafar Akhtar

  • HQ  On July 9, 2011 at 12:42 pm

    Very unfortunate. But we have to bear the consequences of our past follies. These are the doings of our own leaders, be they anyone. The situation will be retrievable by the skin of the teeth. Not at this stage.
    HQ

    • Nadeem  On July 10, 2011 at 3:17 am

      In the present leadership crisis in Pakistan, the only coherent and unified group that can formulate, rationalize and help implement any such strategic plan is the top brass of the armed forces. We need to support and strengthen this institution and urge them on to focus on this issue, rather than further destroying their credibility and morale.

      NK

  • Bashir A. Syed  On July 9, 2011 at 5:16 pm

    One wonders why MUSLIMS keep calling the Western nation as SUPER POWER (which shows inferiority complex), an adjective only to be used for our “CREATOR” but none else. The Correct adjective to use is “MILITARY POWER.”
    Bashir A. Syed

    • S U Turkman  On July 9, 2011 at 5:29 pm

      Sure, sure. BashirA. We should not have any Inferiority Complex and consider ourselves a Super Power instead of thinking USA or Russia are Super Power. We should just attack all these so called Super Powers so, the world starts recognizing as Super Power also, right?
      But then tell us, when are you going to stop living off the US Charity of that Social Security Cheque that you have been receiving for the last 20 years every month?

  • S U Turkman  On July 9, 2011 at 5:18 pm

    My comments are inserted below.

    From: Yasmeen Ali

    WHO PUT A LID ON OUR POLICY FORMULATION?

    This is a Pakpotpourri Exclusive

    By:Admiral Fasih Bokhari

    Former Chief of Naval Staff
    Something has been worrying me for the past few years.
    Pakistan lies on the cusp of America’s Middle East, Central Asian, and South Asian policies.
    .
    TURKMAN: … and USA lays on the Cusp of Pakistan’s secret Middle East and Central Asia take over Plan. Osama was told by us to get rid of Americans from Saudia so we could invade and take over. To provide him full assistance, we had settled him in Afghanistan but it did not work.
    ———– .
    The pivots of American policies in these three regions are Iran, China, and India respectively. Pakistan needs to nuance and balance its own policies in all three, because the US is the super power that defines narratives to which weaker nations must adjust and find political space that allows them an acceptable secure niche. Opposing a super power as a weak divided nation would be suicidal. Adjusting to a superpower till we are stronger and can claim more political space is possible. What we must not do is make our policies for all three regions subservient to India centricity. India centric and Pakistan centric are not the same. About three or four years ago America executed an exterior maneuver, almost launched an attack on Iran, and then pulled back. What is our position on a possible conventional attack on Iran?

    TURKMAN: So, we should remain at war with India like we have been since our birth and there should be no trade talks to improve relations because it would be India Centric? Our Policies have to be Pak Military Centric so, we can keep swallowing up half to 3/4th of Budget of poor Pakistanis every year, right? … Could you please explain which ‘almost attack’ USA had launched on Iran 3 or 4 years ago?
    ———
    We need to be very clear where our current interests lie on the Iran issue because it is the fulcrum of American policy in the Middle East. Pakistan’s Middle East Policy does not appear to be comprehensive and may not be responding to the real interests of our people as opposed to the interests of our power centers, and is obviously not being signaled or read clearly. The same can be said of many aspects of our India and China policies. Policies not rooted in the people’s interests lead to weak nationhood which is what we are facing today.
    .
    TURKMAN: Why do we need to have such Policies? We do not have to look for interest of our people because they are not Pakistan. We the Armed Forces are Pakistan. Pakistani People are our Subjects, remember …!
    ———
    Can Iran, the focus of enmity for GCC and Israel, be attacked conventionally without de-nuclearizing Pakistan? This was the question that started worrying me 3 or 4 years ago. Pakistan never indicated that its nuclear umbrella covered Iran or any other Muslim country. Pakistan had consistently supported the security of the GCC countries, and had never threatened Israel. That was a policy not based on reciprocity, given GCC funding of our militant religious right and close Indo-Israel military ties; but it may have suited our power centers.
    .
    TURKMAN: So, you want us to nuke Israel if Israel attacks Iran’s Nuclear Facilities, right? You are also covertly suggesting that USA wants to control Pak Nukes in order to save Israel.
    ———
    There is obvious Indian interest to have Pakistan de-nuclearized. But it is perhaps only in the Iran context that it suits American, GCC, and Israeli interests to de-nuclearize Pakistan.
    Is Pakistan’s deterrent seen as an umbrella for Iran? Was the pull back based more on Russia, or China’s position? What could be the Russian or Chinese response given the strong economic linkages of mutual dependence of those countries with the US? Is the uncertainty of Pakistan’s position a factor? Are our nuclear policy signals being read clearly? Are we even signaling to countries of that region? Who is pushing this “fear of Pak nuclear” narrative? Are we fated to remain India centric? Have we devised a counter narrative acceptable to all countries involved? These were very vexing questions.
    In the current American, Indian, Israel, and GCC narrative mindset it makes sense for them to put our military on the back foot, and support our political dispensation against the military, in the name of greater “democracy”. The only way to take out Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program is by neutralizing the will to resist of the Armed Forces and further destabilizing the country to a stage that the government and people voluntarily demand it’s dismantling under international supervision.
    TURKMAN: Oh sure, sure. No country on earth has ever existed without Nukes. Nukes sitting in an underground Bunker are the main source, not letting Pakistan become destabilized, right? We need Nuclear Weapons as deterrent to 1971 repeat, while keep repeating 1971 against our minorities again and again, right? Why else we had built nukes? Not for attacking India, licking them or end Load Shedding.
    ——–
    Without it’s nuclear deterrent Pakistan’s very existence could be at stake because we do not fit into the future US paradigms for South Asia, Middle East, or Central Asia due to our “cold war” with India, “historic” relations with Iran, and “time tested” ties to China. We made a point of slapping America in the face with our three horse policy (specially the China horse) when Washington decided on mission creep into Pakistan in their last strategic review. Raymond Davis and the scent of Osama unleashed the current escalation of covert ops and psywar that is destabilizing Pakistan.
    Who has put a lid on our policy formulation and review process? The world has moved on. Can we possibly also move forward sitting astride our three dead horse policy? Where is the real-politik narrative to protect our people’s interests?
    TURKMAN: Which ‘Time Tested’ ties with China? Had China come to help in 1971, 1999 and 2003 to stop India like USA had stopped India from ending existence of Pakistan? Had China helped us, when we were going bankrupt in Foreign Exchange in late 1990’s like USA had helped? Has China helped us more than any other country during Earthquake and Flood like USA had? Has not China told us, not to challenge USA and India and control Terrorism again and again? … Had USA or China told us to keep sabotaging negotiations of our Elected Governments with India through Kargil Infiltration, Indian Parliament Attack and Mumbai Attacks? Had China told us to keep lying, cheating, blackmailing and back-stabbing USA to kill its Soldiers through our Mercenaries, the Taliban? Had China told us to train JehaaDis arriving from all over the world, aid Al Qaeda and shelter Osama in our best Garrison Town near the Capital and GHQ? Had China told us to blackmail USA on R. Davis, when it was clear, he killed those Armed Robbers in self defense? … It has not been a ‘Dead Horse’ Policy. It has been a foolish Moronic suicidal Policy of our crazy immoral Satanic Army.
    ———
    I am not suggesting sudden U-turns or continuing current suicidal policy without regard to consequences. I am saying that we need to re-arrange the priority of our interests, and then strategize to first find our niche to ensure our own survival, second to buy time to become economically and socially stronger, and third to keep reviewing the priority of our interests to keep gaining more and more political space as and when possible. The review of National Security Policy can be an infrequent process. The execution of strategies evolved under the NSP is a day to day process in all sectors of governance.
    Crisis management is not Policy Formulation, or strategy execution. Crisis management is a failure of both.
    TURKMAN: Thank you for trying to make some sense without offending your Army Brothers enough to order your assassination, Admiral …! … I understand. Its not easy to talk with Imbeciles.
    ———-

  • siddiqui my  On July 9, 2011 at 6:56 pm

    Ref Admiral’s undue worries for the past three or four years
    Turkman for a change once has given fairly comprehensive responce
    I really fail to understand the gist and threat of admiral’s concerns
    I thought Pakistan’s nuclear policy is very clear and repeatedly stated openly ie it is purely India Centric !!
    Iran does not require any military assistance from Pakistan and I am sure Pakistan has given no such guarantee to Iran; Our military relationship with Iran, going by past record has neither been ideal nor dependable. Even Saudis to whom Pakistanis have been beholden for decades do not expect a nuclear umbrella from Pakistanis and only few days back the Saudi Foreign minister clearly stated that Saudis are planning their own nuclear program…until such time they will depend more upon US help and clout
    China has always been a very correct and good friend and have NEVER given Pakistan any false promises and they have their own self interest as paramount.
    In 1971 they strongly and sincerely gave correct advice to us which we ignored.
    A few years back when the Chinese president came to Pakistan, in his speech at Lahore his clear advice was to “put Kashmir on back burner and develop your economy…”…We surely ignored his advice.
    I am surprised why the Adm is unduly concerned; As a former Naval Chief he should know Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine better than any of us….it has been always and still is : INDIA CENTRIC…and it is has worked so far!!!!!!!!!
    All we really need is to walk the tight rope diligently and do not trip and try to shed the albatross of Kashmir from our neck !!!!!!!!! Hong Kong (then) and now (almost) Taiwan is falling into Chinese lap without firing a shot………

    I keep on telling the Moderator instead of sorting out the travails of the big & wide world which are totally out of our capacity, we concentrate upon our very own problems………but then we are the remnants of the Great Moghuls and must flex our puny muscles!!!!!!!!!!!!!!God help us…

    siddiqui

  • Tan  On July 10, 2011 at 3:16 am

    Sir,
    This is a short but very thought provoking piece posted by you, perhaps we need to get back to Foreign Policy as well as National Imperatives, impacting our Military Policy formulation and response, as a responsible nuclear power (I am sorry but again it begs the question of Strategic Depth, where Iran and Afghanistan are key elements to any policy initiative). I do hope that we can see through all games that have been played with us so far. Gen Aslam Beg, Gen Hamid Gul and Gen Asad Durrani have been vocal on this as an issue, in their articulation of Military Policies. Time to take on a new and declared policy, to sustain ourselves within the regional complexities (no need for other Muslim countries of this region to make their own nukes, but form alliance with and to support Pakistan thus creating a Block to ward threats to themselves as allies). This needs a very broad perspective and India centricity is automatically taken care of. For further strength China and Russia (as the game has changed now) could be brought to assist this alliance as mutually benefitting.
    Best Regards
    Tan

  • Yasmeen Ali  On July 10, 2011 at 8:08 am

    Dear Admiral Bokhari
    First,let me compliment you on your paper” Who put a lid on Policy Formation”?
    There were thought provoking questions & some good back ground to go with it.
    Well done.
    Following is my take on it:
    1-I will agree that Pakistan must deal with the SWAR on a nation-to-nation basis. Whereas, it includes the multi dimensional pressures from India, this should not over rule our strategic dealings with other countries of the Region.
    2-Regarding Iran. I do not feel, not attacking Iran, US was in any way deterred by a nuclear Pakistan. The deterrent was the Iran President who will retaliate, with force if need be,for whatever Iran is worth,if attacked. For that alone,I respect the man. Dignity & the ability to stand in face of a strong adversary is not a common trait in today’s geo political situation. Besides, a pre dominantly Sunni Pakistan , beholden to USA economically will not come to the rescue of a Shia Iran. Neither will this move be supported by Saudi Arabia. So Pakistan’s hands here are tied. Very much so.In marketing the US’ perception on what is happening in Iran, Clinton said: “We see that the government of Iran, the supreme leader, the president and the parliament are being supplanted, and that Iran is moving towards a military dictatorship,” Clinton told a gathering in Qatar’s capital of Doha.The United States appears to be in a hurry to bring about a regime change in Iran but its biggest problem is that it does not know how to go about it. One of the aims of Clinton’s visit to the region, is to win an assurance from Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Gulf States that they would increase their oil supplies in the event the region is destabilized by an attack on Iran either by the US or by Israel. China, like Iran, is opposed to US hegemony though it does not state it openly. China is suspicious of the US presence in West Asia and Afghanistan, and feels it could be a threat to China’s interest in Central Asia and the Indian Ocean. Some analysts believe the instability in Pakistan’s tribal areas and Baluchistan is being deliberately engineered by anti-China forces to prevent China from extending a highway from its western borders to the Gwadar port in Pakistan’s Baluchistanprovince. Once this highway becomes operational, it will make China geographically close to West Asia and help it save billions of dollars in transport costs. China and the US are also engaged in a “great game” to keep Central Asia within their sphere of influence. China, with Russia’s help, appears to have won this battle for Central Asia; but the US has not given up its ambitions in the oil-and-gas-rich region totally. In recent weeks, US-China relations have been strained by a series of US moves which Beijing saw as hostile. Among them were the sale of advanced weapons to Taiwan and US President Barack Obama’s meeting Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama despite Chinese protests.Given these factors, it is unlikely China would back the sanction and lose the friendship of Iran, which Beijing regards as a natural ally in its growing cold war with the US. What I’m saying is: It is never Pakistan US is wary of, in attacking Iran.It is China.
    3-Your question:who has put policy lid on our policy formation & review process? Us of course. Since we lack economic independence, and have put our eggs in one basket, we are pretty much under the thumb of US. Thereby if we take a step in interest of Pakistan but which may not suit USA, our interests have been abandoned in favor of the US.You are aware of how Pakistan was sharply rapped on the knuckles when it tried to woo Karzai into forming an alliance with China & not US August last year.
    4- Pakistan has a strong,and if I may add, legitimate fear of India. The blue eyed boy of US & the trump card against China’s rise to power in the region.Pakistan expectedly, has reacted sharply to the two major strategic agreements signed between United States and India , within weeks of each other namely:
    New Framework for US-India Defence Relationship signed between US Secretary of Defense and the Indian Defence Minister in Washington on June 28, 2005.
    US-India Joint Agreement signed between the US President and the Indian Prime Minister in Washington on July 18, 2005.
    Subsequent events have only strengthened the relationship between US & India.
    Pakistan ’s fears and concerns on the US-India Strategic partnership emerge as follows:
    India emerges as the dominant power in South Asia .
    South Asia ’s regional strategic balance is jeopardised.
    Pakistan ’s nuclear deterrence vis-a-vis India gets compromised.
    India ’s power projection and force projection capabilities will get enhanced.
    And since Kashmir has to be linked by Pakistan with every conceivable development, USA has jeopardised an equitable settlement of this issue.
    Water violation by India vis-a-vis Pakistan
    CONCLUSION:
    We must develop strategies to suit OUR interests. However, can we develop them in light of our limitations?
    I hope this input is an answer to your request for the same.
    Warm Regards
    YAA

  • ID  On July 10, 2011 at 12:50 pm

    Policies are not formed in vacuum. And the first consideration for our formulators of foreign policy is coherence with the public’s aspirations as well as with our two dear close neighbours and friends, Iran, Turkey & China. They are the bulwark as we must be their bulwark. Rest is peripheral including the GCC/Muslim nations/Europe/US & Russia.
    Foreign policy must be so geared as to secure all objectives like peaceful co-existence with all, non-interference except voicing & supporting the best human condition, financial co-operation, tech know-how exchange, and positive security arrangement among all neighbours. Pakistan must have a bilateral and trilateral arrangement in multiple fields, incl defence, with both Iran, Turkey, China & Muslim states.
    id

  • siddiqui my  On July 10, 2011 at 8:02 pm

    MsYAA,
    Your CONCLUSION has answered the lengthy essay by the Adm and all the other write ups
    The real question is : Why Can’t we develop our strategies ? …you have rightly indicated our “limitations”…most are self imposed……………so???????
    Either there is an answer or there is no answer……
    i have been begging you ( as Moderator) again and again to discuss our limitations and ways out of this mess BUT we are hooked on matters which are way out of our reach and capability,,,,so what is the point of all these discussions; simply to satisfy our egos that we are great thinkers and strategists??? Does all this which Adm Bokhari, myself, yourself and others have written contribute any positive policy;
    India is a dominent power and she will not give up Kashmir. WE MUST accept the imbalance of power. We must NOT accept others to come to our assistance…least of all the USA; not even China or Turkey

    Answer is : pakistan must improve its quality of leadership;Pakistan must improve its economic capability. This is possible with good governance only

    Once again I beg we all concentrate to improve our internal conditions and leave the big league players to their devices; look at New Zealand and Denmark; they exist peacefully and happily…why can’t we!! Have a heart India cannot swallow us; we are no walk over; this is self created fear!!!

  • Shaheen  On July 11, 2011 at 2:32 am

    Yasmeen, right on…

  • Atique  On July 11, 2011 at 5:26 am

    Pakistan needs to develop its own policy based on its national interests and stick to this policy, instead of constantly reacting to policies of USA. Our policy should be inherently pro-China as China is the future ( as opposed to US being a spent force). China is the only country in the World that recently declared that ” an attack on Pakistan is an attack on China”.

    Pakistan should also stay out of GCC / IRAN rivalry and maintain a nuetral stance (15% to 20% of our population is Shia and we can ill afford to alienate this huge segment of our country ).

    We should circumvent USA as it has historically been an unreliable partner. Instead we should develop more coherent relations with the European Union. Develop our economy based on trade with Europe and China.

  • Caprice Negrana  On July 18, 2011 at 4:23 pm

    You’ve got a good blog there keep it up. I’ll be watching out for most posts.

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